ON-Lion Letter
Computer-based learning is on the cusp of transforming traditional public education, say Clayton M. Christensen and Michael B. Horn in the cover article of Summer 2008's issue of Education Next magazine.  Based on their analysis of data on enrollments, about half of all education courses will be delivered online in just over a decade’s time.

In 2007, roughly one million students were enrolled in online courses -- an increase 22 times greater than in 2000, but still representing only about one percent of all education courses nationally.  By using a substitution curve to mathematically predict the pace of adoption, however, Christensen and Horn suggest that in about six years, 10% of all courses will be computer-based and by 2019, about 50% of courses will be delivered online.

“After a long period of incubation, the world will be poised to begin adopting computer-based learning at a much more rapid pace,” explain Christensen and Horn in the article, "How Do We Transform Our Schools?"

Christensen is the Robert and Jane Cizik Professor of Business Administration at the Harvard Business School.  Horn is executive director of education at the Innosight Institute.  They are coauthors of Disrupting Class:  How Disruptive Innovation Will Change the Way the World Learns.

Education Next is published, with substantial support from Milwaukee's Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation, by the Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace at Stanford University.
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